Description: Actuaries are leveraging predictive modeling and machine learning more and more as they strive to provide greater value to their stakeholders. Actuarial standards of practice provide guidance around modeling and data. The world has changed significantly over the last few years, so it is important these models be tested for fairness as well as any statistical biases. This article addresses some of the key issues actuaries need to be aware of as Corporations and society work through the responsible us of this technology and underlying data.

Description: Regression to the mean (RTTM) is inflating your health care intervention evaluations if you are not carefully managing it's omnipresent and significant impact RTTM is the statistical phenomenon which arises when comparing sequential data points when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, and states that with no other intervention, future observations will be closer to the average. Members who had high costs last year will, on average, have lower costs this year, even in the absence of any intervention or clinical program, simply by 'regressing' to the mean. This means that if your clinical programs are simply targeting members who had adverse medical experience last year, you’re targeting the wrong people. And if your savings methodologies are simply last year’s costs minus this year’s costs, the savings are inflated. By attending this session, you will be able to identify situations where RTTM will be a significant factor, how to eliminate it's impact when performing retrospective evaluations, how to identify prospects for clinical intervention with RTTM in mind, and more.

Description: The aim of this project is to present proposals for Variable Uninsured Life Annuities—or “Value annuities.” The report and the accompanying models illustrate how Value annuities work. This is the Chinese translation